First prediction of CDC region-level influenza

We recently joined the CDC Flu Challenge competition and just submitted our predictions for Week 4 on Monday evening. These charts summarize our predictions for each of the ten US regions.  The data are shown by the solid black lines and the model predictions by the thick (smooth color) lines. Future predictions are shown as a dashed curve and the grey vertical bar marks our predictions for the next four weeks.  To make our prediction, we used information about school vacations, specific humidity, previous similar influenza seasons and the pattern if incidence so far. We anticipate that regions 1-6, and 9 have already peaked, while regions 7, 8, and 10 have yet to peak. We are eagerly awaiting Friday’s release of new data by the CDC.  .