We’re into the second week of the CDC Flu challenge. We’ve developed some new graphics to assess our forecasts. This week we’re showing our “histogram plots”. The two images below (PDF versions can be downloaded in the link below each image) show probabilities for (top) national and (bottom) Region 1 summaries of (1) onset; (2) peak week; (3) peak intensity; (4) 1-week forecast; (5) 2-week forecast; (6) 3-week forecast; and (7) 4-week forecast.
The first panel in each Figure shows the current data (up through Epidemic Week 44) in red, together with our forecast (dotted line) and some realizations to give a measure of the uncertainty in the current forecast. The details of the model variants used to make these forecasts will be explained in more detail in subsequent weeks.
The distributions are fairly wide at the moment, reflecting our uncertainty in many of the parameters. As the weeks go by, these will narrow.